Four U.S. Ambassadors Drop a Warning at the Reagan Library: “Deterrence Has a Deadline”

Drone swarms. Arctic chokepoints. And technologies once confined to fiction — ambassadors say the race to deter war is accelerating.

(CLAIR | Simi Valley, CA) — Speaking at the Reagan Presidential Library on Jan. 14, four U.S. ambassadors currently stationed across Europe described a world they say is changing faster than governments are built to respond.

The conversation, moderated by David Trulio, president and CEO of the Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation & Institute, focused on defense, NATO and emerging threats. It unfolded like a guided tour through the pressures shaping the next decade: strained production capacity, drone warfare, Arctic security, China’s industrial reach and conflicts that refuse to end.

Throughout the evening, the ambassadors returned to a shared theme. Strength, they said, is meant to prevent war — but only if it arrives in time.

Trulio grounded the discussion in Ronald Reagan’s legacy of diplomacy backed by strength and optimism rooted in resolve, describing the panelists as diplomats serving during a “profoundly consequential time.” 

On stage were Matthew Whitaker, Thomas Rose, Joseph Popolo, and Nicholas Merrick.

Asked why the ambassadors were traveling across the United States, Whitaker said the group came to see American defense innovation firsthand. Their tour had already taken them to Dallas and Austin, then Southern California, where they saw drones and counter-drone systems, radar technologies, autonomous maritime vessels and experimental tools designed for wars that may look very different from the previous ones.

The purpose, Whitaker said, is deterrence, not escalation. Invoking Reagan’s “peace through strength,” he said lasting peace depends on allies being strong and capable alongside the U.S.

Whitaker described NATO’s recent commitment to raise defense spending targets to 5% of GDP, a sharp break from years when many allies failed to meet even the 2% benchmark. The real measure of success, he said, would not be spending levels, but capabilities — what countries could actually deploy if conflict broke out.

The gap between ambition and production surfaced in a concrete example from Poland. Ambassador Thomas Rose described a country eager to move quickly, but increasingly constrained by timelines. Poland, he said, plans to field about 1,000 tanks by 2030. The United States cannot currently produce at the scale or speed needed to meet that goal, he acknowledged, prompting Poland to place a $30 billion order for South Korean K2 battle tanks.

They are capable systems, Rose said, but not as advanced as U.S. Abrams tanks. The shortfall reflects production limits, not a lack of demand for American equipment. 

Ambassadors, he noted, are “there to sell America,” but allies also need ways to stretch defense budgets and build local capacity.

Rose pointed to Poland’s economy. While much of Europe remains flat, he said, Poland is growing, expanding by roughly 4.5% last year and avoiding recession since the end of communism. Without economic growth, he said, long-term defense investment becomes unsustainable. 

The U.S. innovation tour, Rose said, offered a glimpse of what is possible. The technologies the ambassadors saw, he said, “would make James Bond blush.” More important, they revealed how quickly warfare is changing. The West, Rose said, is not short on talent or creativity. What it needs is the will — and institutional reform — to move faster.

When Trulio pressed the panel on specific capability gaps, Ambassador Joseph Popolo pointed to counter-drone systems as the most immediate concern. Across Europe, he said, counter-UAS threats dominate planning, accelerated by lessons from Ukraine. Low-cost drones, sometimes launched in swarms, can threaten expensive military assets and civilian spaces alike.

“They keep everybody up at night,” Popolo said, noting that allies often face delivery timelines stretching years into the future — a mismatch with present risks.

Whitaker said when a $20,000 drone can wipe out a $100 million aircraft on the ground, it forces the military to rethink how it protects its assets. He described microwave systems, kinetic interceptors, missile defenses and directed-energy technologies seen during the tour. Solutions exist, he said. Scaling them remains the challenge.

Whitaker cautioned against assuming Ukraine’s war with Russia reflects how the United States would fight. Ukraine, he said, is constrained by limited resources. Still, the conflict shows how quickly innovation spreads — and how dangerous it is to rely on legacy systems. Looking ahead, he described a battlefield shaped by AI and autonomy, where front lines may soon be dominated by robots — underwater, on land and in the air — with humans pushed farther back.

The discussion then turned to geopolitics. Trulio raised Greenland, which has dominated recent headlines. 

Backing President Trump’s blunt public approach, Whitaker said Greenland’s importance is grounded in geography — from Arctic missile paths and emerging sea lanes to its role in monitoring submarine traffic.

“The security of Greenland is the security of the United States,” Whitaker said. “We need to take this seriously and fix it.” Diplomacy, he added, remains essential.

Popolo followed by pointing to two pressures: defense capacity and resources. Greenland, Denmark and NATO, he said, cannot secure Greenland alone. Any viable solution must involve the United States. Reliance on China for rare-earth extraction and refining, he warned, presents long-term strategic risk.

Rose drew a sharp line between public messaging and private conversations. Privately, he said, European officials acknowledge Denmark lacks the resources to develop or defend Greenland at the necessary scale. “This is not in any way a new concept or a new strategy,” Rose said.

He described Greenland as potentially the largest recoverable rare-earth source outside China. The issue, he said, is not domination — it is dependence. 

“We’re not anti-Europe. We want to save Europe,” Rose said. “We are the children of European civilization.” Strengthening Greenland, he added, would strengthen NATO, even if public reactions suggest otherwise. 

“The president speaks truth to power,” Rose said. “His diplomacy is very direct. It’s impossible to ignore because he speaks with such common sense and such clarity.”

Whitaker widened the lens, warning against assuming today’s conditions will last forever. Innovators, he said, will find new ways to propel systems even when resources are constrained. What matters most is protecting the American system itself — the American dream — and not smothering entrepreneurs who solve hard problems.

Prompted by Trulio, Rose recalled 1917, when the United States purchased the Danish West Indies — now the U.S. Virgin Islands — for $25 million in gold.

Greenland’s population is roughly 56,000. Rose floated a hypothetical: $500 billion over 10 years. Until something tangible appears on the table, he said, the debate will remain theoretical.

“I work for the greatest diplomatically incorrect president in American history,” Rose said. “None of this is going to mean a thing until there’s an offer on the table.”

The conversation briefly turned to China after the Greenland exchange, touching on concerns about technology, supply chains and strategic competition. 

Questions about territory, resources and deterrence, Rose said, ultimately come back to leadership — and the willingness to speak plainly about hard realities.

“There are rare people in history who change the world,” Rose said, pointing to Ronald Reagan in the 1980s and Donald Trump in the present. He described both moments as “tectonic,” arguing that history is shaped by choice, not inevitability. “We owe them gratitude,” Rose said. “We are living in a blessed era.”

As the discussion neared its end, Trulio asked about Ukraine’s future. “The killing needs to stop,” Whitaker said. He cited staggering casualties and said a proposal to end the war is closer than ever, though the final step may be the hardest. If peace does not come soon, European financing will allow Ukraine to continue fighting for years, he said, adding that he hopes it will not be necessary.

The conversation closed with the Western Hemisphere. Popolo explained why the Netherlands is deeply involved in Venezuela: Curaçao, Aruba and Bonaire sit just off its coast and are Dutch territories. Coordination with the Dutch government, he said, has been extensive, including classified channels. Nicolás Maduro, he said, is a criminal, and U.S. actions follow a legal process tied to drug trafficking. Behind the scenes, Popolo added, Dutch officials understand the stakes, even when public caution suggests otherwise.

In closing remarks, Trulio asked each ambassador what the audience should remember. Rose spoke of renewed confidence, crediting the innovation tour for shifting his outlook. “The best of America truly is yet to come,” he said. Merrick highlighted the cultural shift in defense technology and returned to the idea of Europe and America as family — capable of blunt conversations, but bound by shared interests. Popolo pointed to entrepreneurs and capital markets moving at speed, citing SpaceX as proof of what innovation can accomplish when unleashed.

Whitaker closed by circling back to Reagan. Optimism, he said, is not naïveté. It is a strategic asset. America is stronger with strong allies. Its best days, he said, remain ahead.